Why Obama Will Win in 2012

It doesn’t matter what the talking heads are clucking about: Obama is going to win in 2012.

Here are a few indicators:

Not even the Republican Party itself thinks it can win.  This is evidenced, not by the quality of the candidates that are in the race, but by the quality of the candidates not in the race.  For example, Mitch Daniels opted out of the race. He was 2 time governor of Indiana with experience in the executive branch under Bush II.  He balanced the state’s budget, enacted stronger abortion regulations and instituted a school voucher system.  Another example: Chris Christie refused to run despite the GOP practically begging him to do so. He’s a wildly popular straight talking governor of liberal New Jersey.  His entry would surely push aside the current front-runner and give the party a shot to steal a Northeastern state.  The list goes on: Haley Barbour, Marco Rubio, John Thune, Mike Huckabee, Scott Brown, Sarah Palin.

Now I know that not all of these candidates are rock stars, but I'd be willing to bet that a field which included Daniels, Christie, Rubio and Thune would be a lot scarier to the Democrats than Romney, Cain and Perry. 

There’s a whole host of reasons one can use to explain why these people aren’t running, but I only buy one: its because they don’t think they can win.  All of them want to be president. You will see these names again and they will be on a presidential primary ticket, but it won’t be next year.  It will be in 2016, when Obama is out of office.

The next question is: why are they not confident in their chances?  Well, I don’t have the facts to back this up (thank you Herman Cain) but here goes:

1.      Obama is an incumbent.  Incumbency is the greatest  advantage that a candidate can have.  As president you can use the bully pulpit to garner all of the attention and campaign all the time. 

2.       Obama has Money.  This is essentially the same as the first.  Because incumbents represent the status quo, they garner the most donations.  They also have the forum (the Presidency) to attract the donors and the funds.  It’s a vicious circle.

3.       Obama is still very likeable.  No matter what people say about his policies and no matter how bad you may think his performance on the economy is, people still like him on a personal level.   He’s a family man, he’s funny and he has a pretty good reputation for being honest and trustworthy (as far as politicians go).  The polling backs this up and likeability is often very, very indicative of voting patterns.

4.       And despite the “lack of results” on the economic side of the coin, Obama has kicked ass on foreign policy:

·         Obama got Bin Laden.

·         Obama’s ending, literally ending, the war in Iraq.

·         Obama got Gaddafi

·         He’s kept the country safe from terrorist attacks

5.       Also, he’s supported some very popular legislation

·         Financial Reform

·         Repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

He’s done some unpopular things too: mainly Healthcare Reform, but the entire universe does not revolve around one piece of legislation and the American people take a holistic approach to electing presidents.

The lesson of 2004. One last reason why the Republicans are basically opting out of this election, they remember 2004.  In 2004, Bush had lost much of the massive popularity he enjoyed early in his first term.  People were skeptical.  There was a lot of tough media coverage on him, and in better times, he may have lost.  But that’s the point exactly.  In 2004 we were mired in war and uncertainty, and during times of doubt, the American people thought it better not to change captains halfway across the ocean.  They decided to give Bush another chance.  Let him finish what he started.  This same principle applies now to Obama.  He came into office in a time of great turmoil and confusion.  The American people know that it took more than 4 years to come out of the Great Depression.  It took more than 4 years to win WWII and rebuild Europe.  It took more than 4 years to stare down the Soviet Union and end the Cold War.  Despite what people may think, the American people do not lack patience or fortitude.  We possess it in abundance.  The people will give Obama four more years to fix this mess.  They know that nothing short of superpowers could have done so sooner.  The G.O.P. knows this too, and that is why they will sit out this race, and hope that 2016 can bring them greater fortune.