Nuclear Weapons: The World's Greatest Force For PEACE

PERPETUAL WAR BETWEEN GREAT NATIONS

Throughout history, warfare between great nations has been a relative constant.  In ancient times the Greek city-states were engaged in a near perpetual state of warfare.  Rome battled Carthage for decades on end until one enemy was completely destroyed.  During medieval times European monarchies fought wars so regularly that the summertime was thought of as “campaign season” and each nation would battle throughout the warm weather and replenish their forces during the winter.  This never-ending warfare between powerful nations carried into the Industrial Age.  The Napoleonic Wars of the 19^th century.  Two wars fought between the Japanese and Russians in the early 19^th century.  The culminating conflicts of WWI and WWII which wrought destruction and death on scales never before seen in the history of mankind.  But after WWII, something strange occurred.  Wars between great nations ceased.  The power rivalries in Europe were replaced by an economic Union of nations.  Japan and China found a cold, but stable, peace.  What is there to explain the non-occurrence of a massive war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union?  It wasn’t the spread of democracy or human rights.  It wasn’t the remembrance of massive damage that occurred in WWI and WWII.  If that held true, WWII would have never occurred after the destruction wrought in WWI.  It wasn’t slick negotiating and communications between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.  There is one thing that can account for this absence of war between great nations since WWII and that is the creation, and proliferation (amongst rational actors) of nuclear weapons.

TWO SUPERPOWERS: NO WAR

The U.S. and the Soviet Union did not go to war because each side knew if they attacked the other, they themselves would be destroyed in the ensuing nuclear conflict.  This is a simple concept known as mutually  assured destruction (MAD).  Sure, the U.S. and Soviet Union fought proxy wars with one another, (Vietnam, Korea) but neither ever dared to risk a nuclear battle.   Before the advent of nuclear war, such smaller conflicts would almost definitely have led to a greater conflict between the two great powers. 

Since WWII, no two nuclear armed countries have engaged each other in major conflict.  The current nuclear armed countries are: France, The U.S., Russia, Great Britain, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and probably Israel. No wars have occurred between these countries since WWII.  The most fascinating case study is between India and Pakistan.  After the partition of India and the creation of Pakistan in 1947 the two countries have been engaged in a heated rivalry and fought three wars between 1947 and 1971.  But during the 1970’s it is suspected that both sides gained nuclear weapons capabilities.  Since then, with terrorist attacks aside, the two countries have only engaged in one armed conflict, the Kargil Conflict in 1999 which was more like a minor scuffle than a war.   And even so, the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides most likely prevented the countries from escalating the Kargil Conflict even further.

THE NUCLEAR BLANKET

Pushing beyond two-country rivalries, these nuclear nations have even extended their nuclear umbrella to cover other nations.  The U.S. warmly embraces Japan in its nuclear blanket preventing any possibility of war between them and their historical rival, China.  The combined nuclear shield of the U.S., Great Britain and France guarantees the protection of all the European countries from intrusion by other nuclear powers.  Just as the U.S. extends its sphere, China and Russia’s blanket guarantees non-intervention in their zone of influence.  We didn’t see the U.S rushing to assist Georgia in their recent tit-for-tat with the Russians.  The world has essentially been divvied up by the nuclear powers and a significant portion of it is off-limits for war.  These days people are up in arms about the threat that China poses to the U.S.  You can sleep soundly at night.  There will never be war between the two countries.  Both countries would be completely wiped out.  It ain’t gonna happen.  We both have rational governments and countries full of people who value their continued existence.  All of this is thanks to the hugely destructive power of nuclear weapons and MAD. 

You see, in the past leaders could gamble with war.  And they did, especially when they thought they could win.  But now, the risk is too great.  And it doesn’t matter if you outnumber another nation two to one in terms of population, weapons or resources.  If they have nuclear backup, your'e screwed.  Nuclear weapons are the great equalizer.  Its why the little countries want them and the big countries don’t want anyone else getting them.

A HISTORY OF PEACE

Now, I’m not saying that nuclear weapons aren’t a scary thing, because they are, and in the hands of a non-rational actor they are the single greatest threat to the future of mankind.  But they have brought us peace for the last 60 years and have allowed us to develop economic and cultural ties that bind the world together.  Just remember, the next time you wish for a world without nuclear weapons, imagine the loss of human life that would have occurred if the U.S was forced to invade Japan.  Think of what a conventional war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union would have looked like.  Do you really think Europe, after all of its decades of infighting, would have been so peaceful and harmonious for the past half-century in a world without nuclear weapons.  So the next time you pine for the elimination of nuclear weapons, think hard about it, and be careful what you wish for….