In 2003, when I was assigned to Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, my flight path didn't take me straight to Japan. About 2/3rds of the people on my flight were heading to South Korea to join the 25,000 or so American military personnel stationed in the country. My flight landed at Osan Air Base, en route to Tokyo, about 48 miles south of North Korea and the demilitarized zone. I only spent a few hours there, and I never left the base, but a stark image remained in my mind: rows and rows of massive artillery guns, pointed in a northward direction, lined the outer base of the airfield. I had never seen anything like that before. I had only been to relatively peaceful and docile American bases, but Osan stood ready for war at any moment. It made me realize how real and significant the threat of war with North Korea was. That threat is even more real today. In March, North Korea sunk a South Korean submarine killing 46 sailors, and on November 23rd they rained artillery fire at a South Korean island killing marines and civilians alike. Who are the power players inthis conflict and what can be done about it.
North Korea
A country of 24,000,000, they are half the size of their counterparts to the South, who have a population of 48,000,000. The country is run by a communist dictator and has experienced predictable results from such harsh leadership. Regular famine, an economy in shambles and a country controlled with an iron-fist. For years North Korea has sustained itself through aid from Western nations, but the world has changed since 9/11. The U.S. government has increasingly viewed N. Korea as a potential threat, with Bush labelling them one of the Axis of Evil countries. North Korea has lived up to its moniker by regularly tormenting its people and developing nuclear weapons despite international pressure to stop. In recent years, they have advanced their nuclear program, even setting off a nuclear bomb in 2006. These actions recieved harsh international criticism and increased sanctions from Western nations, who have reduced their food aid to N. Korea. The North Koreans have grown increasingly hostile in recent years and this can be attributed to 3 key factors.
The first is their increasing fear of the U.S. after 9/11. With U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the world's most powerful military force began to show less tolerance for rogue nations, especially ones with nuclear aspirations. The U.S. flexed its military might and the North Korean regime needed to take action to ensure self-preservation, hence the activation of the nuclear program. Nuclear weapons are the great equalizer on the world stage. Without advanced coventional weaponry the North could use a nuclear capability to put the fear of God into any nation, even the U.S. Nothing guarantees protection from invasion like nuclear weapons. Pakistan and Israel have ensured their own soveriegnty in the same way and Iran aspires to join the club. While the U.S. is embroiled in two wars and economic trouble, what better time to develop nuclear weapons. The North will not stop it's nuclear weapons program without significant pressure, because it is the key to the regimes self-preservation. At the same time, the nuclear capability has given them leeway to partake in their favorite pastime without fear of retribution, pissing of South Korea and attacking them at will.
2nd is the decrease in aid. As I mentioned before, with N. Korea's nuclear development, Western nations have cut off aid. This has caused domestic trouble for the regime, as a hungry population is a restless population. N. Korea is using threats and intimidation to force these nations not to ignore them or impose any additional sanctions. At the same time, there is often no better way to unite a restless citizenry than to beat the drum of war. Citizens angry at the regime may still come to their side if they are faced with a threat from the outside, like the U.S., S. Korea and Japan, especially when all of their media and news information is spoon-fed from the government.
3rd is China's increasing power and influence on the world stage. China is N. Korea's crutch, protector, and most important ally. Though Russia also supports N. Korea, and rarely says a bad word about them they are not nearly as stalwart as the Chinese. Chinese media portrayed the recent artillery attack as one initiated by S. Korea. As long as China has their back, N. Korea can basically do what they want, including shell S. Korean islands.
Which brings me to the central question: why does China support N. Korea?
China regularly opposes U.N. sanctions against N.Korea and provides them with the majority of their foreign aid. Besides cultural, ethnic and historical ties, China backs them for two main reasons, they are a buffer against the U.S., S. Korea and Japan, three allied, democratic, modern, countries and they fear a flood of refugees from a N. Korean collapse. With regards to the latter, a flood of refugees from N. Korea into China could incite panic, dissent and impede the country's most important national goal: rapid economic growth.
As to the buffer theory:
Though China has opened up economically, and no-longer follows a centrally planned economic model, they have not opened up politically. Their are no basic rights for the Chinese people like freedom of speech, or the ability to vote and participate in the political process in any meaningful way. The U.S. and Western powers regularly apply pressure upon such nations to reform.
The Chinese also undervalue their currency to keep exports cheap and drive the growth of their economy. This keeps China's domestic market closed to imports from the U.S. and Western nations and gives them an unnatural competitve edge, which is exaggerated during tough economic times.
The Chinese are also engaged in a flurry of resource gathering activity. With a huge thirst for fossil fuels and natural resources, China has become a major competitor for these valuable and limited resources. While the U.S., Western Europe and Japan consume and monopolize the majority of the oil from the Middle East, China must look to new frontiers. Where have the Chinese gone? Africa and South America. Oil deals with Venezuela and increased resource exploration and investment in Africa have helped CHina continue its economic growth.
So what does this have to do with N. Korea? If the U.S. is occupied with a despotic, nuclear, N. Korea, we won't be able to criticize China's political process, make demands to lower the currency, or compete for resources in new lands. Well, we will still do those things, but they won't be as high on our list of priorities, especially while we fight terrorism and engage in nation-building throughout the Middle East. N. Korea is like a pressure valve for China and as long as they are there, it releases a little bit of pressure from the Chinese.
The key to N. Korea, is China. If the U.S. can convince China that it is in their best interest to help us settle down N. Korea, which ultimately it is, then we can place powerful international pressure on N. Korea and possibly reap positive results, or control behavior like its recent attacks. Without Chinese cooperation though, the path to war between the two Koreas may be closer than many may think....
Though China has opened up economically, and no-longer follows a centrally planned economic model, they have not opened up politically. Their are no basic rights for the Chinese people like freedom of speech, or the ability to vote and participate in the political process in any meaningful way. The U.S. and Western powers regularly apply pressure upon such nations to reform.
The Chinese also undervalue their currency to keep exports cheap and drive the growth of their economy. This keeps China's domestic market closed to imports from the U.S. and Western nations and gives them an unnatural competitve edge, which is exaggerated during tough economic times.
The Chinese are also engaged in a flurry of resource gathering activity. With a huge thirst for fossil fuels and natural resources, China has become a major competitor for these valuable and limited resources. While the U.S., Western Europe and Japan consume and monopolize the majority of the oil from the Middle East, China must look to new frontiers. Where have the Chinese gone? Africa and South America. Oil deals with Venezuela and increased resource exploration and investment in Africa have helped CHina continue its economic growth.
So what does this have to do with N. Korea? If the U.S. is occupied with a despotic, nuclear, N. Korea, we won't be able to criticize China's political process, make demands to lower the currency, or compete for resources in new lands. Well, we will still do those things, but they won't be as high on our list of priorities, especially while we fight terrorism and engage in nation-building throughout the Middle East. N. Korea is like a pressure valve for China and as long as they are there, it releases a little bit of pressure from the Chinese.
The key to N. Korea, is China. If the U.S. can convince China that it is in their best interest to help us settle down N. Korea, which ultimately it is, then we can place powerful international pressure on N. Korea and possibly reap positive results, or control behavior like its recent attacks. Without Chinese cooperation though, the path to war between the two Koreas may be closer than many may think....
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