The Republicans Best Shot to Beat Obama: Rick Santorum

The 1960 campaign between Nixon and Kennedy featured the first televised debate between presidential hopefuls.  Nixon had been campaigning all day before the debate, he refused to wear makeup before going on stage and on black and white television his beard stubble was prominent.  Kennedy, by contrast, rested and prepared extensively beforehand and appeared confident and relaxed during the debate. Immediately following it Nixon’s mother called him to ask if he was sick.  He wasn’t, but after seeing the effects of his performance he may have been, as Kennedy’s poll numbers inched ahead of Nixon going from a slight deficit to a slight lead.  The debate had 70 million viewers.   People who watched the debate on television overwhelmingly believed Kennedy had won, while radio listeners (a smaller audience) believed Nixon had won.  A stark example of how appearance and style can overwhelm substance in an election which is, at its core, a popularity contest.

Fast forward to the current Republican primary and the battle between the “front-runner” Mitt Romney and newly surging Rick Santorum.  When it comes to style versus substance, Santorum has all the style, while Romney has all the stiffness of a 1960’s Dick Nixon.  I first made this observation following the Iowa caucuses and watching the two candidates “victory” speeches.  Neither candidate used a teleprompter (a device the Republican party has tied so closely to Obama that it may equal political suicide for one of their own to use it, even though it’s a practical and useful device).  Anyways, Romney’s speech came off as a studdered mess.  He spit out catch lines about building the economy mixed with attacks on Obama, but all in an unorganized and disconnected mess.  He didn’t tell a story and he didn’t tie anything together with a theme or his vision for the country.  Contrast that with Rick Santorum’s speech.  Rick told the story of how his grandfather, an Italian immigrant, mined coal to put food on the table for his family.  How Rick grew up in a home of blue collar values and a blue collar work ethic and that those are the values that he stands for.  I’m a staunch Democrat and I found myself enthralled by Rick Santorum’s speech. 

Voters want honesty, authenticity and character.  Santorum exudes these values while Romney struggles to define what he stands for.  Rick Santorum may know that the media is going to roast him if he says what’s in his heart of hearts, but guess what, he says it anyway.  He doesn’t care what the media does.  Rick says what he believes and believes what he says.  He doesn’t stray from his values the instant a new poll comes out.  Contrast that with “Multiple Choice Mitt.”  Romney typifies the type of politician who caters every speech to his audience and always tells you what you want to hear.  Flip-flopping gold.  Rick knows his views on homosexuals and women are old fashioned and unpopular, but he believes in them and he stands by them.   I’m a Democrat and I disagree with many of his policy views, but he is an authentic man and I like him.  Mitt Romney is a robot.

So why do I think Rick is the better choice to beat Obama? A few reasons.  Let’s start with the current results: Rick’s won four states and Mitt’s won four states, but what’s more telling is that Rick leads Mitt by double digits in Michigan. Harking back to the Al Gore rule: if you can’t win your own state, you’re a loser.  Mitt was born in Michigan and his Dad was a popular governor there and now Rick’s beating him there.  This could mean that Rick would perform stronger in key Rust Belt swing states like Ohio and PA.  Next, Rick can energize the Republican base.  As I stated in a previous article, the Republican party is “severely” lacking enthusiasm for the “severely” conservative Mitt Romney.  He’s the “best of the worst” candidate.  Republicans don’t get excited over him, they just think he has a better chance to beat Obama than anybody else, but that’s exactly what they said about John McCain and we all know how that worked out.  Santorum first came to Congress running a low budget grass roots campaign and he’s done the same thing in this election, tying the Romney Campaign-machine with states won, while using half the resources.  But more importantly, Santorum can energize and capture the Tea Party enthusiasm of the 2010 elections.  If anyone is “severely” conservative it’s Rick, not Mitt.  

Now this is a strategy choice the Republican’s will have to make.  They can try to grab independents and the middle of the country by nominating Mitt or they can energize their base and nominate Rick.  Mitt isn’t gonna get anyone excited, but if Obama falters, he may be able to catch those looking to jump off the Obama ship.  Rick probably won’t catch those voters, but there is an important demographic he can grab: the Reagan Democrats.  White suburbanites who are socially conservative yet fiscally liberal.  Hillary Clinton Democrats.  Independent Catholic males.  Santorum may not get the gay vote, but let’s face it, no election has ever turned on the gay vote.  And Rick may not energize young people, but young people don’t vote anyways and once Ron Paul is gone those voters will either go to Obama, or not vote at all.  The chances of Mitt energizing young people is about the same odds as him dropping into the 99%.

So to summarize, Rick is stronger than Romney for three key reasons: 1^st, he’s authentic, while Romney is fake, 2^nd: he can energize the Republican base more than Mitt, a sound strategy in general elections especially given we are only two years removed from the Tea Party’s emergence and 3^rd: Rick can win middle class Catholics and Independents in the rust belt.  And even though he alienates young people and homosexuals, an election has never, and may never, turn on those demographics.

The true test will be what happens in Michigan.  If Mitt comes back and wins Michigan I’ll eat my words, but if Rick wins it, I will stand triumphant.  If the economy continues to improve, neither candidate will be able to beat Obama, but Rick stands a better chance.  If the economy loses energy as an issue, Mitt will not have a single leg to stand on, as he is the economic, business, candidate and if that happens the Rep’s stand a better chance of going to war with Obama on social issues and in that case Rick is the guy.  Rick is a communicator.  Even when it comes to his controversial stances he has a great ability to explain them in common sense terms. 

For better or worse, oftentimes presidential elections come down to the candidate that a regular guy would prefer to have a beer with.  The candidate that i better perceived.  The lessons of 1960 cannot be forgotten.  Romney will be painted as the 1%.  The rich guy fat cat that cant relate to the regular American.  The Wall Street Michael Douglas villain.  Rick Santorum grew up in Western PA.  The grandson of a coal miner with traditional family and religious views. The average person is gonna sit down and have a beer with the blue-collar guy.  The candidate who brings his family on stage with him and takes time off from campaigning to be with his sick daughter.  Not the guy who doesn’t care about poor people.  If the Republicans want a prayer come November, Rick is the guy.